TNS – The News on Sunday

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The British statesman had no idea of the post-colonial world his receding empire had left behind. In Pakistan, no dictator has even been eaten by a tiger, bitten by a snake or stung by a scorpion. It is the elected leaders who are imprisoned, exiled, and hanged, and occasionally succumb to terrorists’ bombs and bullets. This binary is a legitimate way to analyse the current situation in the country because it is based on the structural realities and can yield a valuable insight into the system. However, the complex realities of a country condemned to live forever in interesting times cannot be reduced to one binary alone. Nawaz Sharif may be one of the eighteen prime ministers who went home without completing their tenure, but he is not just another prime minister. He is the fourth most popular leader in the country’s history, after Jinnah and two Bhuttos, and the second political leader to found a popular national party that has been able to withstand the test of time, again after Bhutto’s PPP. It is not the first time that he has come tumbling down in the snakes and ladders game of Pakistan’s politics. He has definitely seen worse, far worse. This time, despite the unceremonial exit, he remains the most powerful civilian in the country with his party holding its fort at the centre and in two provinces. This dangerous irony can be seen as a sign of democratic development. After all, there is a consensus amongst other political players, who were hunting with the hound, that the party that won last elections with a comfortable majority should stay in office till the next elections. However, the whole game, on their part, is premised on the assumption that once the head has been severed, the body will lose the vital force. [box type="shadow" align="alignright" class="red_lines" ]The overgrown institutions cannot be diminished through pruning or confrontation, though on many occasions courage rather than capitulations can be a better strategy.[/box] For almost half of its existence, Pakistan has been firmly under one martial rule or the other and for the other half under some sort of a democratic transition. Where are we at the moment? If we go by Samuel Huntington’s two turnover test, we are half the way through. This is how Encyclopaedia Britannica defines this test: the “two turnover test “means that an incumbent party is voted out of office and then its successor is also voted out of office without a collapse in the democratic constitutional order.” In Huntington’s view, if a new democracy survives two turnovers of power, then it has consolidated satisfactorily. In 2013, Pakistan, for the first time in its history was able to complete half of the test. However, a prime minister had been ousted by the court only a year earlier. The PPP government had, in fact, faced an extremely hostile court led by Chaudhry Iftikhar through much of its tenure. The party had also faced a virulent version of the corruption narrative peddled by PML-N, PTI and the media combine. However, PPP took the beating without raising much hue and cry. Perhaps, it understood its own limitation and wanted the newly revived democracy to continue at every cost. Perhaps, it took Huntington’s theories too seriously. Read also: Will the PML-N survive? The current crisis is rooted in the fact that the power elite have not been able to evolve effective mechanisms of conflict resolutions. The institutions meant for this purpose remain inefficient, ineffective and devoid of public trust. The lack of consensus on the rules of the game is not just inter-institutional, such a consensus is lacking amongst the political elite itself. The Supreme Court was a reluctant customer of the current crisis. The crisis, that should have been resolved downstream, landed in the court as politicians and the parliament failed to agree on a mechanism to resolve it. It was very naïve of the PML-N to believe that the crisis will lose its steam with time and no one will try to benefit from it. PPP had advised the PTI to “not give politicians’ beard into the hands of other institutions”. Now the beard of all politicians is in the firm grasp of the court, thanks to the redefinition of Article 62 and 63 that emerged from the case. It can prove a larger source of humiliation for politicians and a bigger source of political instability than Article 58-2(b) that was used to overthrow government in 1990s. The overgrown institutions cannot be diminished through pruning or confrontation, though on many occasions courage rather than capitulations can be a better strategy. A balance between institutions can be created through nurturing the undergrown institutions. The state pillar that needs strengthening is not the office of the prime minister but the parliament. The idea of going back to the drawing board to evolve a new political consensus is valuable. However, in the current atmosphere neither Nawaz Sharif nor Raza Rabbani will be able to herd cats that have their eyes firmly on the pigeon of the upcoming elections. Huntington may have a point but democratisation is not merely agreement by the elite. It requires commitment from the public as well. The parliament gains its strength from effective, mature and democratic political parties. Political parties ensure an entrenched and effective democratic process in an organic sense. Without strong political parties, democracy may remain an unstable house of cards. The political parties are a huge national asset and one major difference between Pakistan and its Muslim brethren in the Middle East facing a chaos. Almost all parties lack effective organisation and internal democracy. Now that Nawaz Sharif has all the time in the world, it may be valuable for him to focus on his party. The biggest legacy he leaves behind may be a strong and democratic Muslim League. [post_title] => Politics now [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => politics-now [to_ping] => [pinged] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/will-pml-n-survive/ [post_modified] => 2017-08-20 11:35:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-08-20 06:35:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/?p=70373 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw [format_content] => ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 70302 [post_author] => 29 [post_date] => 2017-08-20 03:21:43 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-08-19 22:21:43 [post_content] => Is the party really over? The ousted prime minister Mian Nawaz Sharif’s march from Islamabad to Lahore via GT Road spread over three days was an attempt to convince his own workers as well as the rest of the country that it isn’t over yet. He came on the road after having put in place a prime minister who doesn’t belong to the Sharif family and helping him choose a cabinet whose sheer size guarantees that it would last beyond the NA-120 result. But are the workers of the PML-N and the rest of the country convinced the party’s future and integrity is intact. Soon after the Supreme Court ruled against the first family, declaring the prime minister and his children along with others disqualified to hold a public office, analysts were quick to predict the party is now going to fragment, with more members driven to whatever king’s party it was going to be replaced with. They shouldn’t be blamed for they had the benefit of hindsight to think so, but a couple of weeks down, many of these analysts have been proved wrong. The political challenges may still be there but, for now, the party stands united behind the de facto party president, even though an acting president has already been nominated. As Sharif and his family begin facing the cases now being heard by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), a review petition has been duly submitted before the Supreme Court and Kulsoom Nawaz, the only untainted family member in the house of Nawaz Sharif, has filed her nomination papers for NA-120. Sounds too early to write an obituary for the party but which way is it headed and what lends it strength are legitimate questions to ask. But before that, what is the perception about the elder Sharif’s GT Road march and what did it achieve? Senior analyst Arif Nizami thinks it was “a mixed bag” and the aim of the march was “partly to boost the morale of their workers in what is deemed to be an election year”. [box type="shadow" align="alignright" class="red_lines" ] In the opinion of Tahir Mehdi, Nawaz Sharif “as an individual dynast articulates the Punjabi elite’s interest. The momentum of this interest is such that Nawaz Sharif is indispensable”.[/box] The show in Rawalpindi was dismal but according to Nizami “Gujrat and beyond, till Lahore, was fine. The crowd was much better in Gujranwala and Lahore.” “But remember this is not a grassroots party. When Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif returned to the country during Musharraf’s time, there weren’t many people out to receive them,” says Nizami, adding the real challenge for them is to keep the party intact and “they have been somewhat successful in keeping it together in the first phase”. If one tries to judge which way the party is headed from Nawaz Sharif’s speeches during the march, the content, too, was a mixed, or rather confused, bag. There couldn’t have been a more ironic statement than his calls for speedy or ‘90-day’ justice because that’s exactly what he claims to be a victim of. His supporters could interpret it as a sign of his consistency because that’s what he has been demanding (and providing too in the form of anti-terrorism courts or, as some might say, extrajudicial executions etc.) since the 1990s. Read also: Party for the PTI He was consistent in calling for economic progress, employment, roads, electricity, cheap housing for the poor, things that he has been harping on as the prime minister in the last four years. What was new in these speeches was his dig at ‘institutions’ that oust elected prime ministers and have been doing so for 70 years, and his demands to rectify the ‘system’ and the constitution. A leader of a right-leaning party from Punjab talking about the injustices meted out to East Pakistan and Balochistan — certainly a new narrative from a newly converted ‘ideological’ leader. So, are there any takers for this ideological swing among analysts specialising on Punjab? Tahir Mehdi calls it a “reverse evolution”. “Having evolved out of the military’s lap, now fighting with the establishment, the PML-N is trying to do populist politics now,” says Mehdi. Having said that, Mehdi has strong reasons to believe why the PML-N’s chances to survive are good. “Actually the vested interest of the Punjabi civil elite is so strong, substantial and mature that the party is going to survive on that momentum alone. For quite some time, the military elite’s vested interest in society had primacy in this country and the civilians only tagged along; but not any more. Now the Punjabi elite wants its share even in foreign policy. Earlier on, there was a clear imbalance; now there is a tussle.” The Punjabi elite’s stakes are huge. “There is no manufacturing no doubt but they dominate trading. If the Wagah border is open for trade, albeit carefully, the Punjabi trader stands to benefit. The biggest investment opportunity, housing, is monopolised by the military but then there also are Malik Riaz and others who have a sizeable interest,” says Mehdi. The party is aware of these strengths and its ability to strike back. Nizami thinks that unless the PML-N goes too far in its fight with the establishment, “there is not too formidable a challenge. General Bajwa has said the military would follow the constitution. The party being in power at the Centre and Punjab wants to give this impression that while they are in power, they are also in opposition.” This is an advantageous position, no doubt, and in the words of Nizami they want “to prolong it as long as they can”. There still are people who think the party won’t survive if the house of Sharif is ousted from politics. In the opinion of Tahir Mehdi, Nawaz Sharif “as an individual dynast articulates the Punjabi elite’s interest. The momentum of this interest is such that Nawaz Sharif is indispensable”. He admits there may be some hiccups in the way “but in the process new leadership will emerge and it will become a party. The establishment which till now would physically eliminate individuals cannot do that because this party represents Punjab’s biggest interest”. Nizami concurs that the chances of military takeover are minimal because the army has taken this “strategic decision that it will not overtly rule, something called the Kayani Doctrine, unless the situation becomes too unstable”. Following this analysis, the PML-N looks formidable because the PTI is a second-line contender for power and the PPP is nowhere on the scene in Punjab which is crucial in government-formation at the centre. The meager chance the PPP has in South Punjab is preempted by the PML-N, as Mehdi says, “by having six ministers from South Punjab in the federal cabinet”. Besides, he says, the PPP used to represent labour, peasants, trade unionists and the left but “in patronage politics, they can’t beat the PML-N in Punjab”. The party still looks less invincible than it did last year before the Panama Papers leaks. In a federation that is run through some form of procedural democracy, the political outcomes contingent on one big province creates an imbalance. And that works to the benefit of the PML-N for now. [post_title] => Will the PML-N survive? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => will-pml-n-survive [to_ping] => [pinged] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/party-pti/ [post_modified] => 2017-08-21 15:14:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-08-21 10:14:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/?p=70302 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 1 [filter] => raw [format_content] => ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 70303 [post_author] => 29 [post_date] => 2017-08-20 03:19:26 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-08-19 22:19:26 [post_content] => “Why did they disqualify me?” Nawaz Sharif asked the crowds at his various rallies along the GT Road as he marched back to Lahore. In their celebratory gathering at Liaquat Bagh on August 13, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf set out to answer the question. The rally at Liaquat Bagh was a show to rival that of Nawaz Sharif as he reached Lahore, the base of his political career and power. The mood was celebratory, the party leadership appeared relaxed as they took to the stage and congratulated each other for the victory; they also called out Nawaz Sharif and his refusal to accept the decision. Almost an hour before 12am, Imran Khan went up to speak to a cheering crowd. He, like other leaders, answered Sharif’s query. “The courts for the past 6 months, the court ran your case, investigated and then when you were caught you say the people’s mandate was stolen and ask why have they disqualified me? Nawaz Sharif that is not the question,” he addressed the crowds, directing the question at the former prime minister. On the same day, the PTI dropped pamphlets from helicopters in Rawalpindi, stating in ten points exactly why Sharif had been sent home. According to Ayaz Amir, a senior political analyst, this was a good strategy on the part of the PTI. He believes they should continue attacking the PML-N. “The rally to counter the Nawaz Sharif’s GT Road march was a good decision, as was that of dropping pamphlets,” he says. He sees this as a tactic to continue building pressure on the PML-N. [box type="shadow" align="alignright" class="red_lines" ]With an election coming next year and in NA-120, many feel the PTI should also be looking for ways to increase their support base. “They should turn their attention towards the election and think of this as a big contest,” says Ayaz Amir.[/box] For the last four years, the PTI which has emerged as the main opposition party in the country has been on the streets rallying support against a system they believe to be corrupt. The first time was on August 14, 2014, when they launched an Azadi March against electoral rigging, at the heart of which was the demand to recount the votes in four constituencies to show systematic electoral rigging. The weight of the allegations was on the ruling party PML-N. About three years later, the PTI had again taken to the streets, this time asking for Sharif’s accountability after his children’s name emerged in the Panama Papers. The allegation was money laundering. The PTI believed the money used to acquire all these properties had been made through corruption. “It was not our wish for Nawaz Sharif to be declared unfit,” says Ejaz Chaudhry, a senior leader of the PTI. He says Sharif was given a fair chance to explain everything. “They did not have just one but five opportunities to answer the questions raised by the Panama Leaks.” Read also: PPP's chances So, what’s next for the PTI? Chaudhry believes the fight is not yet over. He points to various issues that the party will continue to build pressure on. He questions Sharif’s actions since his ouster saying, “He used public funds, tax-payer money with the cooperation of the federal and provincial governments during the rally. We have an issue with this.” Chaudhry says Sharif also has to explain some of the statements he made during the case and after it. “He has pointed towards the military for conspiring against him, saying the decision to oust him had been made before (the JIT report). He needs to explain exactly what he means by such statements.” The PTI is also backing the PAT’s demand of making the report of the incident in Model Town Public. Chaudhry calls it the “Model Town massacre,” adding “When the hearing of the case starts, it is important to have the report public so it can be made clear who is responsible; otherwise facts can be misrepresented.” To him, the PTI will continue keeping an eye on the references filed in NAB. “They were supposed to present the Hudaibiya Paper Mill case within a week for review in front of the Supreme Court, but they have not done so.” Chaudhry says it is time for all in the political arena to be held accountable, including the PTI leadership, which also has charges filed against them. He believes Imran Khan will present all his documents in the court relating to his property in Bani Gala as will as Jahangir Tareen who has a case against him for not declaring assets and having an off-shore company. “We are doing this across the board and no one will be left out,” he adds. With an election coming next year and in NA-120, many feel the PTI should also be looking for ways to increase their support base. “They should turn their attention towards the election and think of this as a big contest. It is not the end all be all but definitely an opportunity for them,” says Ayaz Amir, speaking of the by-election in NA-120. He thinks that for the election next year the PTI is in a good place. “If there is an election in 2018 and PTI cannot win the largest number of seats, it will never be able to win.” To Amir, the current situation is more of a crisis for the ruling party. “The PTI is in a favourable position.” Imtiaz Alam, senior columnist, says the ouster of Nawaz Sharif and his rhetoric against the system is all that Imran Khan has to offer to the public. “The main plan of his corruption drive was against Nawaz Sharif and he doesn’t have an agenda on systemic corruption that can be addressed through systemic reforms. He is not interested in that.” Alam says Khan failed to explain the four points he had put forth at the rally at Liaquat Bagh. “His politics is essentially rhetorical, anti-incumbency against parties of old regimes.” Alam feels Khan is nothing but a new face on the block and that is where his appeal and strategy end. What lies next though for the PTI? Chaudhry says their “top priority” now is the election next year. He says they’ve set up a parliamentary board to look at contesting candidates and have also started a membership drive to increase party support. Some young PTI voters feel left out of the PTI’s current strategy, “Their politics has become more Punjab-centered,” says Khalid Omar Sherwani, a 22-year old political science student based in Karachi, who says he no longer supports the party. “The urban Karachi voter feels helpless and useless because electing the PTI to the National Assembly will not have their voice heard.” He raises an issue that has come up often in the past, especially by Naz Baloch who left the party in July. There is another woman MNA who announced to leave the party and created quite a much storm. There may be a lull regarding Ayesha Gulalai’s allegations of sexual harassment against Imran Khan for now. But it is likely to come in the news again, with some real consequences for the party. [post_title] => Party for the PTI [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => party-pti [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-08-19 19:37:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-08-19 14:37:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/?p=70303 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw [format_content] => ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 70306 [post_author] => 29 [post_date] => 2017-08-20 03:19:08 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-08-19 22:19:08 [post_content] => After the disqualification of Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif last month, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has opted for seeking the support of ‘people’s court’ and shown its political strength through carrying out the ‘home-coming’ rally from Islamabad to Lahore. Terming the ‘ouster’ of Sharif from the prime minister’s house as its ‘great achievement’, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has already started preparing for the upcoming general elections, which they believe, may take place earlier than scheduled. In all this heated and changing political atmosphere, where does the Pakistan People’s Party stand? What happened to the Charter of Democracy that leaders of the PPP and the PML-N had signed in exile for strengthening the democratic process in the country? Is the PPP playing the role of opposition effectively? Is the party preparing for the general polls? These questions are part of a debate that is going on not only among the political circles but also within the ranks of the PPP. PPP chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and other central leaders have repeatedly said the PPP would not protect Sharif as he had always stabbed it in the back after returning to power. Sharif, before starting his GT Road rally, had suggested that “before the upcoming general polls, a grand national dialogue and new social contract needed to be worked out and the forthcoming polls could serve as a referendum on it”. So far, the PPP has rejected his offer. “This time, I will not even attend his [Sharif] phone call. It will not sign any new reconciliation agreement with him,” said Bilawal in a press conference in Islamabad on August 11. He said the PPP had never supported the PML-N but had stood for democracy in the past many years. “If there is a danger to democracy today, we will stand with democracy. But at this moment, there is no threat to it. There is only threat to Sharif’s own survival and for this we cannot help.” [box type="shadow" align="alignright" class="red_lines" ]After Sharif’s ouster, the PPP has been working hard to remove the party’s tag as a ‘friendly opposition’ to the PML-N and now adopted an aggressive policy against the ruling party.[/box] Analysts think that the recent political events have placed the PPP in a critical position. “Its support will be sought by its two adversaries: Sharif and the establishment. Sharif intends to open a debate on constitutional changes that can prevent the transformation of his ouster into long term exit from the corridors of power. The establishment would like to encourage Sharif’s isolation as the third party the PTI holds similar plans for him. Secondly, in the future electoral scenario PPP will be a crucial player in the case of a hung parliament and Asif Ali Zardari is likely to be the kingmaker again,” says Raza Rumi, the editor at the Daily Times. Read also: Editorial After Sharif’s ouster, the PPP has been working hard to remove the party’s tag as a ‘friendly opposition’ to the PML-N and now adopted an aggressive policy against the ruling party. Asmatullah Wazir, an Islamabad-based analyst, says the PPP’s friendly opposition’ politics has damaged the party in Punjab badly. “The PTI chief Imran Khan’s aggressive politics against the PML-N helped woo the PPP leader and voters. Even, the PPP has no role in ousting the Sharif from premiership. It was only the PTI which continuously ran a campaign [against him],” Wazir tells TNS. However, Rumi thinks differently. “The PPP under the Bilawal is playing an aggressive role as opposition. Also Aitzaz Ahsan has emerged as a major voice in the Punjab against Sharifs. But the baggage of ‘reconciliation’ has affected the overall perceptions of the voters,” says Rumi. After the 2013 polls and the emergence of the PTI as an effective political party at the national level and in Punjab, the PPP has lost its influence there and is restricted to rural Sindh only. And in recent months, a number of key leaders of the PPP in Punjab have also joined the PTI, wiping out the latter steadily in a province that constitutes almost half of the seats of the National Assembly. The PPP leadership is working hard to change this dynamic in the upcoming polls and, thus, the PPP’s co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto have landed in Lahore on August 16 to stage a camp and do aggressive politics in Punjab, the party leaders say. The two leaders met party’s Punjab leadership and discuss the province’s changing political scenario. They have also discussed the election campaign for Faisal Mir, the party’s nominee for by-polls in the Lahore’s NA-120 constituency. “The party is now in the election mode and the main focus would be Punjab for this purpose; the public contact campaign has already started,” says Qamar Zaman Kaira, PPP’s central leader. However, analysts believe it is unlikely that the PPP will emerge as the single largest party for some time. “The route to power in Islamabad is via Punjab. Here the PTI and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid are in a hyperactive mode. If the PML-N cracks by early next year, the PTI and PML-Q will benefit more than the PPP,” says Rumi. “Sadly, the PPP has not much to offer to the aspirational urban middle and lower middle classes of the Punjab. The PTI has the edge in that direction. But PPP is likely to retain its hold over Sindh and it might make a few gains in Southern Punjab if there is an effective campaign under Bilawal and if PPP becomes a credible voice for Seriaki rights, it is likely to emerge as a key player in 2018.” On the other hand, the PML-N is not considering the PPP as a serious challenge. “In the current scenario, the PML-N has gone back to ideological politics and gave alternative narratives: empowerment of Parliament, PM office, respect for ballot and permanent mechanism for conflict resolution among institutions,” says Jan Achakzai, a PML-N’s central leader. “On the other hand, the PPP has lost ideological streak, and it also has no governance-development centered narrative. The PPP will take a while to recover lost space to PML-N on the basis of conceptional democracy including the CoD.” A section of analysts believe that Zardari’s arrival in Lahore is a part of helping the elder Sharif out of the crisis and a meeting between the two is also expected. There are speculations in Islamabad and Lahore that Sharif had contacted Zardari and sought help but the latter had only promised to consult his party leaders on the issue. They also believe that the PPP central leadership has assessed the situations and expect that after Sharif, the next target would be Zardari trapping him in corruption cases. However, the PPP leaders reject such speculations and say that Sharif-Zardari meeting is not probable. Meanwhile, an accountability court in Rawalpindi has expedited the proceeding in the last pending corruption reference against Zardari, in which he was accused of having acquires assets, both in Pakistan and abroad, illegally, according to an August 17 media report. “The PPP is doing  politics of muk muka (compromise/deal) with the PML-N and bringing the party into a bargaining position,” says Wazir. He says the PPP’s apparent aggressive tone against the PML-N is just to make the party workers in Punjab happy.  [post_title] => PPP’s chances [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => ppps-chances [to_ping] => [pinged] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/editorial-89/ [post_modified] => 2017-08-20 11:37:44 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-08-20 06:37:44 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/?p=70306 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw [format_content] => ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 70542 [post_author] => 29 [post_date] => 2017-08-20 03:15:43 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-08-19 22:15:43 [post_content] => This is a land of no mean excitement. One political development follows another, without a minute’s relief. Political uncertainty is an understatement it seems because this is what defines our politics. There is no exact point where one can aim to start the conversation. Except when something really drastic happens that has the potential to rock the boat. Such as when an elected prime minister gets ousted, which is not too infrequent in our case. It happened again on July 28 and it would not be too wrong to say that a section of society was expecting this decision by the country’s Supreme Court. The party in question nominated another member as the prime minister and a new cabinet is in place. But Mian Nawaz Sharif, the outgoing prime minister, decided he won’t take it lying down and started a homeward march on the GT Road. The PTI, the party that brought the prime minister to his knees, saw this as an occasion to celebrate and keep building the pressure on the ruling party. Our Special Report today aims to see where is the politics in the country headed and what does it mean for democracy and institution building. In this moment of flux and rising temperature, we at The News on Sunday have tried to see what kind of developments are happening within the three major parties, PPP, PML-N and PTI, and what are their prospects in the coming elections. Are the elections going to be held as per schedule which may also be the ruling party’s wish or will they be pushed ahead? How true are the rumours about the two year long interim government which can effect electoral and other reforms before another election is announced? Where are we at the moment and where is our politics now… Read also: Politics now [post_title] => Editorial [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => editorial-89 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-08-19 19:38:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-08-19 14:38:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://tns.thenews.com.pk/?p=70542 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw [format_content] => ) ) [post_count] => 5 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 70373 [post_author] => 29 [post_date] => 2017-08-20 03:23:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-08-19 22:23:34 [post_content] => “Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount,” said Churchill. The British statesman had no idea of the post-colonial world his receding empire had left behind. In Pakistan, no dictator has even been eaten by a tiger, bitten by a snake or stung by a scorpion. It is the elected leaders who are imprisoned, exiled, and hanged, and occasionally succumb to terrorists’ bombs and bullets. This binary is a legitimate way to analyse the current situation in the country because it is based on the structural realities and can yield a valuable insight into the system. However, the complex realities of a country condemned to live forever in interesting times cannot be reduced to one binary alone. Nawaz Sharif may be one of the eighteen prime ministers who went home without completing their tenure, but he is not just another prime minister. He is the fourth most popular leader in the country’s history, after Jinnah and two Bhuttos, and the second political leader to found a popular national party that has been able to withstand the test of time, again after Bhutto’s PPP. It is not the first time that he has come tumbling down in the snakes and ladders game of Pakistan’s politics. He has definitely seen worse, far worse. This time, despite the unceremonial exit, he remains the most powerful civilian in the country with his party holding its fort at the centre and in two provinces. This dangerous irony can be seen as a sign of democratic development. After all, there is a consensus amongst other political players, who were hunting with the hound, that the party that won last elections with a comfortable majority should stay in office till the next elections. However, the whole game, on their part, is premised on the assumption that once the head has been severed, the body will lose the vital force. [box type="shadow" align="alignright" class="red_lines" ]The overgrown institutions cannot be diminished through pruning or confrontation, though on many occasions courage rather than capitulations can be a better strategy.[/box] For almost half of its existence, Pakistan has been firmly under one martial rule or the other and for the other half under some sort of a democratic transition. Where are we at the moment? If we go by Samuel Huntington’s two turnover test, we are half the way through. This is how Encyclopaedia Britannica defines this test: the “two turnover test “means that an incumbent party is voted out of office and then its successor is also voted out of office without a collapse in the democratic constitutional order.” In Huntington’s view, if a new democracy survives two turnovers of power, then it has consolidated satisfactorily. In 2013, Pakistan, for the first time in its history was able to complete half of the test. However, a prime minister had been ousted by the court only a year earlier. The PPP government had, in fact, faced an extremely hostile court led by Chaudhry Iftikhar through much of its tenure. The party had also faced a virulent version of the corruption narrative peddled by PML-N, PTI and the media combine. However, PPP took the beating without raising much hue and cry. Perhaps, it understood its own limitation and wanted the newly revived democracy to continue at every cost. Perhaps, it took Huntington’s theories too seriously. Read also: Will the PML-N survive? The current crisis is rooted in the fact that the power elite have not been able to evolve effective mechanisms of conflict resolutions. The institutions meant for this purpose remain inefficient, ineffective and devoid of public trust. The lack of consensus on the rules of the game is not just inter-institutional, such a consensus is lacking amongst the political elite itself. The Supreme Court was a reluctant customer of the current crisis. The crisis, that should have been resolved downstream, landed in the court as politicians and the parliament failed to agree on a mechanism to resolve it. It was very naïve of the PML-N to believe that the crisis will lose its steam with time and no one will try to benefit from it. PPP had advised the PTI to “not give politicians’ beard into the hands of other institutions”. Now the beard of all politicians is in the firm grasp of the court, thanks to the redefinition of Article 62 and 63 that emerged from the case. It can prove a larger source of humiliation for politicians and a bigger source of political instability than Article 58-2(b) that was used to overthrow government in 1990s. The overgrown institutions cannot be diminished through pruning or confrontation, though on many occasions courage rather than capitulations can be a better strategy. A balance between institutions can be created through nurturing the undergrown institutions. The state pillar that needs strengthening is not the office of the prime minister but the parliament. The idea of going back to the drawing board to evolve a new political consensus is valuable. However, in the current atmosphere neither Nawaz Sharif nor Raza Rabbani will be able to herd cats that have their eyes firmly on the pigeon of the upcoming elections. Huntington may have a point but democratisation is not merely agreement by the elite. It requires commitment from the public as well. The parliament gains its strength from effective, mature and democratic political parties. Political parties ensure an entrenched and effective democratic process in an organic sense. Without strong political parties, democracy may remain an unstable house of cards. The political parties are a huge national asset and one major difference between Pakistan and its Muslim brethren in the Middle East facing a chaos. Almost all parties lack effective organisation and internal democracy. Now that Nawaz Sharif has all the time in the world, it may be valuable for him to focus on his party. The biggest legacy he leaves behind may be a strong and democratic Muslim League. 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